Commodity Radar: Sell gold on rise as yellow metal consolidates. 5 technical factors to watch out for

Gold traded rangebound on Monday amid a lack of triggers from international markets. The August MCX gold contracts moved within a 650-point range while slipping into the red.

The weakness could be attributed to easing US–China trade tensions, while a higher-than-expected U.S. jobs report dampened expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

Lower rates are beneficial for the non-yielding yellow metal.

Around 1:30 pm today, the August gold futures were trading at Rs 96,851 on the MCX, down by Rs 185 or 0.19%. Meanwhile, on COMEX, gold contracts were trading at $3,348.80 per troy ounce, up by $2.20 or 0.07%.

Tech view

Weekly Technical & Fundamental Outlook – MCX Gold (05 Aug 2025 Contract)
Week Ending: June 7, 2025
Closing Price: Rs 97,036

Key support & resistance:
Gold has turned sideways after a failed breakout attempt above Rs 98,700. The price was rejected near the upper Bollinger Band, forming a near-term double top around Rs 98,800–Rs 98,900.

A steady base is forming around Rs 96,300–Rs 96,500, with the support zone at Rs 96,300 and major swing resistance at Rs 98,700. The short-term top is estimated at Rs 1,01,000.

Trivedi said that a close below Rs 96,300 may invite selling pressure toward Rs 94,800–Rs 93,500, while a decisive breach above Rs 98,700 could lead to a rally toward Rs 1,01,000.

RSI (14): 54.23
A neutral-to-mild bearish bias is seen as the RSI has cooled off from earlier highs and now hovers near the midline at 54, reflecting reduced bullish momentum. It is neither overbought nor oversold, indicating consolidation. Sustained weakness below 50 may confirm downside pressure.

Bollinger Bands:
Consolidation with resistance at the upper price band. The price was rejected at the upper Bollinger Band. Now, Rs 96,800 could open downside expansion.

Moving Averages: Price is struggling around support

• EMA 8 (Red): Rs 97,300
• EMA 21 (Yellow): Rs 96,400

The price has slipped below the EMA 8, indicating short-term weakness, while the EMA 21 continues to provide support. A close below Rs 96,400 would be structurally negative, favoring a bearish trend shift.

MACD: Flat momentum with fading bullishness

• MACD Line: 727.68
• Signal Line: 657.42 → Still bullish
• Histogram: 70.25 → Slightly weakening

While the MACD remains positive, the histogram reflects declining bullish momentum. A bearish crossover is not confirmed yet but could occur if selling pressure continues.

Trading strategy: Sell on rise with tight stop loss

Gold is currently in a wait-and-watch zone with a mild bearish tilt. As long as Rs 98,700 is not breached on a closing basis, rallies are expected to face selling pressure. A break below Rs 96,400 could accelerate the downside toward Rs 94,800.

• Sell on rise: Rs 97,600–Rs 98,000
  Stop Loss: Rs 98,700 (on closing basis)
  Targets: Rs 96,300 → Rs 94,800

While gold is expected to remain rangebound in the near term, its direction will depend on tariff negotiations between the US, China, and other key global players.

On the domestic front, investors should monitor rupee movement—as a weaker INR against the USD will support domestic gold prices.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views, and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)