GVA GROWTH INDIA
RBI MPC at a glance: Your one-stop guide for all key decisions
The RBI's MPC, led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, cut the repo rate by 50 bps to 5.50% to support growth, projecting a 6.5% GDP increase for 2025-26. With inflation at a near six-year low of 3.2% in April 2025, the MPC forecasts CPI inflation at 3.7% for the fiscal year.
Inflation forecast revisions could set tone for future easing: Pranjul Bhandari
HSBC's Pranjul Bhandari anticipates a 25 basis points rate cut from the MPC, with no change in policy stance. Focus will be on future easing and inflation forecast revisions, hinting at two more rate cuts. While growth projections remain steady, a shift towards informal sector consumption is expected, potentially offsetting weaker investment.
At 7.4%, India’s growth steps on race pedal in Q4
India's economy surpassed expectations with a 7.4% growth in the March quarter, boosting FY25 growth to 6.5%. Investment recovery and strong construction drove this expansion, despite concerns about tepid urban demand and global uncertainties. While marking a four-year low, India remains the fastest-growing economy, poised to become the fourth largest, with economists projecting continued growth around 6.5%.
India’s FY25 economic growth hits four-year low of 6.5%, Q4 GDP hits one-year high
India's economic growth slowed to a four-year low of 6.5% in FY25, despite a stronger-than-expected Q4 performance of 7.4%. Key officials remain optimistic about India's growth potential, expecting it to remain the fastest-growing major economy. Factors like robust industrial activity, rural demand, and government spending helped navigate global trade disruptions, with the IMF projecting India's economy to surpass Japan's.
Early monsoon, low inflation and tax cuts to aid consumption revival: Sajjid Chinoy
JPMorgan's Sajjid Chinoy anticipates a potential upside surprise in GDP data, projecting a 7.5% growth driven by stronger agricultural production and increased government spending in the second half of the fiscal year. While urban consumption slows due to depleted savings and wage deceleration, rural consumption shows promising signs of recovery, potentially boosted by a favorable monsoon and benign inflation.
India GDP growth likely accelerated in March quarter on rural demand, state spending
India's economic growth likely accelerated in the January-March quarter, driven by increased rural demand and government spending, despite private firms delaying investments due to global uncertainties. GDP is expected to have grown by 6.7% year-on-year. The Reserve Bank of India projects a 6.5% GDP growth for the fiscal year, positioning India as the fastest-growing major economy.
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India's GDP likely grew by 7% in Q4FY25; current fiscal year GDP to settle at 6.3%: Report
ICICI Bank projects India's economy to grow by 7 percent in Q4FY25. This growth is due to increased government spending and rising rural demand. Overall GDP growth for FY25 is expected to be 6.3 percent. Rural areas are likely to perform well, supported by a good monsoon. Government spending will further boost growth.
India's Q4 FY25 GDP growth likely to accelerate to 7.0%: UBI report
Union Bank of India projects India's Q4 FY25 growth at 7.0 percent, up from 6.2 percent in Q3. The full-year FY25 growth is revised to 6.3 percent. High-frequency indicators show a mixed trend with an upward bias. Revival in rural demand, government spending, and events like Mahakumbh may support growth. The IMF projects India's GDP at 6.2 percent in FY25.
$8 billion and rising: How processed food exports can unlock growth for India in global food trade
A recent report by Deloitte-FICCI highlights that processed food exports will generate broader ecosystem benefits, including reducing post-harvest losses, enhancing employment, and delivering better returns to farmers without requiring higher acreage.
Barclays projects 7.2% growth in Q4 for India amid tax surge and improvement in agriculture sector
Barclays projects India's Q4 FY25 GDP growth at 7.2%, driven by net indirect tax growth and improved agriculture, while Nomura estimates 6.7%. Both firms forecast lower FY25 growth than official estimates. Easing inflation may prompt RBI rate cuts, supporting the economy amidst varying growth projections for the coming fiscal year.
NFO Insight: Can Motilal Oswal Services Fund help you gain stability and long-term growth potential?
Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund introduces the Motilal Oswal Services Fund. The new fund offer is now open for subscription until June 3. This scheme invests in the growing services sector. It aims for long-term capital appreciation. Experts advise caution with new fund offers. They suggest considering existing funds with performance history. The fund targets India's services sector growth.
NFO Update: Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund launches services fund
Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund launched a new equity scheme focused on India’s services sector. The NFO opens May 20 and closes June 3. It aims for long-term capital appreciation by investing across market caps in service-focused companies.
India needs revitalization to maintain long term growth of over 6%: Report
A recent report suggests that the Indian economy needs a strong domestic focus for long-term growth. The pandemic significantly impacted the services sector. Weak consumption and slow wage growth threaten recovery. The IT sector played a key role. Agriculture requires reforms. Manufacturing showed strong growth in the past. Construction experienced volatility. Diversification is essential for a resilient economy.
Can India create an effective framework to bridge the skill gap in its workforce?
India is developing a unified framework to track skill demand and supply, addressing shortages and gaps by incorporating technical, cognitive, and socio-emotional skills. The MSDE-NCAER study proposes continuous monitoring and forecasting, using high-growth sectors and aligning with national classifications. To fully operationalize the framework, improvements to data collection and active involvement of Sector Skill Councils are needed.
Monsoon prediction augurs well for farm sector growth, to boost consumption: Ind-Ra
India Ratings and Research anticipates a boost in farm sector growth due to IMD's prediction of a slightly above-normal monsoon in 2025. This, coupled with potential monetary easing, could help India mitigate the negative effects of reciprocal tariffs. A favorable monsoon season is expected to contribute to reasonable agriculture GVA growth and support consumption in the economy.
India’s manufacturing model shifting toward IP-led, research-driven production: 3one4 Capital
According to a report titled The Future of Production in India by early-stage venture firm 3one4 Capital, while low-cost labour remains a factor, India’s future competitiveness will likely depend on its ability to produce high-complexity, innovation-led goods across sectors such as semiconductors, aerospace, and specialty chemicals, among others.
1.91 lakh circuit km transmission lines to be added by 2032
India plans to add 1.91 lakh ckm of transmission lines and 1274 GVA of transformation capacity by 2032, according to Union Power Minister Manohar Lal. The expansion, detailed in the National Electricity Plan, aims to meet the country's growing electricity demand and ensure optimal usage of generating capacity. Issues like Right of Way and new transmission technologies were also discussed.
GDP growth likely to be 6.2 pc in Q4; 7 pc in FY24: Ind-RA
India Ratings and Research forecasts India's GDP growth rate at 6.2% for the March quarter and 6.9-7% for 2023-24 fiscal year, per economist Sunil Kumar Sinha. The government is to release Q4 GDP numbers and fiscal estimates on May 31.
Digging deeper: Do India’s stunning 8.4% Q3 GDP numbers have more to it than what meets the eye
In Q3FY24, the Indian economy outperformed expectations, growing at 8.4%, surpassing the predicted 6.6% rate. However, a significant divergence between GDP and GVA raised concerns, with GVA growth at 6.5%. Economists caution that the high GDP may not reflect balanced growth, citing a decline in agriculture, uneven private consumption, and increased reliance on public capex.
India's digital economy grew 2.4 times faster than economy in 2014-19: RBI article
In absolute US dollar terms, India's digital economy exhibited a growth rate (compounded annually, CAGR) of 15.62 per cent between 2014 and 2019, while India's economy (GVA) grew annually at a compound rate of 6.59% (as per ADB's IO tables).
GDP contracts 7.3% in FY21, Q4 sees 1.6% growth; focus shifts to second wave's impact
Gross Value Added (GVA), which is a more accurate way of assessing the actual growth in the economy, contracted by 6.2% for the entire year.
What explains the spike in fourth-quarter GDP growth? It was Modi's hand at work
Data released by the CSO a few days ago showed that GDP growth in the January-March quarter of 2017-18 was at a 7-quarter high of 7.7 per cent.
'Hand of government' lifts Jan-March GDP growth: HSBC
The "hand of government" was the main driver behind the rise in January-March GDP growth to 7.7 per cent, says an HSBC report.
Economy to grow less than 7% in FY18: Forecasters
Some of the recent indicators have pointed to a recovery – core sector growth hit a 13-month high of 6.8% in November while manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index scaled a five-year high.
Some poor states do better in job creation: Crisil
While Chattisgarh recorded a 10.6% growth in the gross value added or GVA of labour intensive sector, Jharkand and Orissa recorded 8% and 7.6% respectively compared to the national average of 7.1%, the study notes.
Worst is over: Economy may pick up in September quarter
India Ratings and Research has forecast GVA to grow 6.4 per cent and gross domestic product growth at 6.5 per cent in the second quarter ended September.
India's GVA growth may rise to 6.3% in September quarter: Nomura
The July-September quarter saw strengthening of consumption-related indicators.
Growth may slowdown in Q4 of FY17; new WPI, IIP numbers may improve numbers: Icra
The growth will be driven by a strong growth in the service sector which accounts for a bulk of the economic output.
We are looking at three quarters of sub-7% GVA growth: Aditi Nayar, ICRA
We have had a sharp upward revision in growth numbers for FY15-16 but one has to find out what led to the slowdown in FY16-17 in the first half, says the economist.
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