GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS SUPPLY CHAIN

Fed meeting outcome among 6 factors likely to impact D-Street activity this week
Markets faced sustained pressure throughout the week, slipping by over a percent amid escalating geopolitical tensions and uncertain global signals. After a tepid start, benchmark indices steadily moved lower as volatility picked up, eventually closing near their weekly lows.

G7 in Canada: What’s at stake for Canada as Carney hosts Trump, Modi, Zelenskyy amid trade wars, global crisis, and tensions
Canada is preparing to host the G7 summit. Prime Minister Mark Carney aims to reshape Canada's global image. Discussions will include trade tensions, new alliances, and Canada's role in a changing world. Leaders from Mexico, Brazil, South Korea, and Ukraine will attend. The summit will address energy security, AI governance, and global health.

Learn With ETMarkets: Geopolitics vs. Portfolio - 7 smart investing moves in volatile times
Geopolitical tensions significantly influence financial markets, impacting supply chains and commodity prices. Despite events like the Russia-Ukraine conflict and US-China trade tensions causing short-term volatility, Indian equity markets have shown resilience. Experts advise maintaining a long-term perspective, diversifying asset allocation, and incorporating safe-haven assets.

Oil prices on the boil after Israel’s strike on Iran’s nuclear facility. What's next?
Global crude oil markets face uncertainty in mid-2025. Israel's airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities caused Brent crude prices to surge. Concerns about supply disruptions from the Persian Gulf and potential Iranian retaliation through the Strait of Hormuz loom large. Despite OPEC+ production cuts, increased output from other nations and tepid demand growth, particularly in the U.S.

Indices declines 0.7% amid rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions
Indian equity indices closed lower on Friday due to Israel's strikes on Iran, which raised concerns about oil supply disruptions and a wider Middle East conflict. Despite an initial sharp fall, the market recovered some losses, supported by underlying bullish sentiment. Both Nifty and Sensex declined, with investors closely watching key support levels for further market direction.

Oil up 8%, but India may not feel much pain
"It is in the interest of the US, Iran, and other West Asian producers to keep oil flowing without disruption," said a refinery executive, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "Producers in the region will not want their trade disrupted, and Trump will be wary of global supply shocks that could push up US pump prices."
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US stock futures plunge as Israel strikes Iran, Dow falls 400 points, oil prices surge over 8% amid Middle East tensions
US stock futures plunge as Israel strikes Iran, Dow futures fall sharply after Israel strikes Iran, shaking global markets and pushing oil prices up by over 8%. The Dow Jones futures dropped 423 points, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq also fell. Israel’s airstrikes triggered a state of emergency, and although the U.S. denied involvement, tensions spiked. Brent crude and WTI crude prices surged, gold climbed 1%, and defense stocks like Lockheed Martin rose. Meanwhile, tech stocks dropped. President Donald Trump urged Iran to negotiate. As markets react, investors now wait for consumer sentiment data. Rising energy costs could also impact inflation and Fed policy decisions.
Gautam Adani's Middle East gamble: Billions at risk as Iran-Israel war escalates
Adani Group’s major investments in Israel, including Haifa Port, a defence JV with Elbit, and a semiconductor plan, face growing uncertainty amid escalating Israel-Iran tensions. While financial exposure remains limited, geopolitical instability threatens operations and investor sentiment, placing Adani’s Middle East strategy under heightened scrutiny.
Crude oil prices could spike to $120, warns J.P. Morgan. Explained in 6 key points
Following Israel's military operation on Iranian nuclear sites, J.P. Morgan warns oil prices could surge to $120 a barrel if Middle East tensions escalate. Brent crude futures already jumped nearly 9%, and the bank estimates a 7% chance of a worst-case scenario involving Iranian oil supply disruptions. The situation complicates monetary policy amid stalled nuclear talks.
IndiGo, SpiceJet slide up to 6% after Air India plane crash, oil price surge
Share prices of Indian aviation companies plummeted following a tragic Air India crash and a surge in global crude oil prices. The Air India Dreamliner crashed shortly after takeoff, killing all 241 onboard, triggering caution among investors. Simultaneously, escalating Middle East tensions, highlighted by Israeli strikes on Iran, caused oil prices to soar, further pressuring airline profitability due to increased fuel costs.
ONGC shares jump 3% as Brent Crude spikes over 12% on Mideast tensions
ONGC share prices rose over 3% on Friday after Brent crude surged more than 12% amid rising geopolitical tensions following Israel’s airstrike on Iran. With oil prices climbing to multi-month highs, ONGC stands to benefit from improved realisations, boosting earnings from its upstream operations.
Asian Paints shares in focus as RIL sells 3.6% stake to SBI MF, Brent crude up over 12%
Asian Paints share price: Reliance sold a 3.6% stake in Asian Paints to SBI Mutual Fund in a Rs 7,704 crore block deal, one of India’s largest. Additionally, Brent crude's 12% surge may impact input costs for paint makers, potentially affecting margins amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
IOC, BPCL, other OMC shares tumble up to 6% as brent crude tops $75/bbl amid Israel-Iran tensions
Oil marketing companies' shares declined. This happened after Brent crude prices increased significantly. Israel's airstrike on Iran caused this surge. The airstrike heightened geopolitical tensions. Concerns arose about potential disruptions to global oil supplies. Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation shares all fell. The market is reacting to the escalating conflict in the Middle East.
Shares of OMCs fall, upstream oil cos gain on crude rebound
Heightened US-Iran tensions drove up global crude prices, impacting Indian markets. HPCL and BPCL shares fell 4-6% due to anticipated pressure on marketing margins from rising crude costs. Conversely, Oil India and ONGC saw gains as higher crude prices improve their profit margins, with analysts predicting continued volatility.
Indices decline 1% amid rising crude prices and geopolitical tensions
Indian equity markets experienced a 1% decline on Thursday, triggered by escalating tensions in West Asia and the subsequent surge in crude oil prices. Geopolitical uncertainty, coupled with a plane crash, dampened investor sentiment, leading to significant selling pressure from foreign portfolio investors. While domestic institutions provided some support, broader market indices reflected the prevailing caution.
European shares tumble as trade, geopolitical tensions mount
European shares dropped on Thursday, in their fourth straight session of declines, as trade optimism stemming from U.S.-China trade talks faded, while mounting geopolitical tensions led to the markets being more cautious.
Being a bully on trade won’t work longer term, Lagarde warns
Christine Lagarde cautioned against using coercive trade policies, emphasising their unsustainability and potential for retaliation, particularly amidst geopolitical tensions and integrated supply chains.
Rare earth rattles: As US woos China, India watches and weighs its chances
Amidst China's rare earth export restrictions causing global concern, India is actively seeking joint exploration opportunities with Central Asian nations to diversify its supply chains. Minister Piyush Goyal has called China's actions a "wake-up call," as India aims to become a reliable alternative for businesses reducing dependence on Chinese suppliers, though challenges and a lengthy process are anticipated.
India Inc's ship needs more armaments, least prepared in APAC to tackle financial and geopolitical risks: Kroll Study
A Kroll study reveals Indian C-suite leaders are least prepared in APAC for financial and geopolitical challenges, particularly concerning budget issues and cybersecurity. They prioritize financial metrics over risk management, unlike their global counterparts. While confident in domestic growth, Indian businesses face significant concerns regarding tariffs and economic instability, impacting sectors like gems, jewellery and textiles.
How this IIM Calcutta programme prepares you for what’s next in supply chain management
Here’s why the Advanced Programme in Supply Chain Management (APSCM) by IIM Calcutta is ideal for professionals navigating the complexity of global and regional supply chains—across sectors such as manufacturing, retail, services, and infrastructure.
Why aluminium prices are rising and what to expect next
Aluminium prices are currently trading between $2,450 and $2,600 per ton, experiencing a 10-15% increase since January due to US-China tariffs and supply chain issues. China's manufacturing slowdown and environmental policies impact global supply, while demand remains stable with growth in EVs and construction.
Electric passenger vehicle sales cross 4% first time in May 2025: FADA
Electric passenger vehicle sales in India surged in May, exceeding 4 per cent of total sales, a notable increase from 2.6 per cent in May 2023. Overall auto retail sales experienced a modest 5 per cent rise, with two-wheelers leading the growth, driven by rural demand and auspicious events.
Geopolitics vs portfolio: Why Sensex doesn’t get scared easily
Despite geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan, the Indian stock market has historically shown resilience. Examining past conflicts like the Kargil War and the Mumbai terror attacks reveals that the Sensex often recovers quickly, rewarding patient investors. Experts advise focusing on long-term financial plans, maintaining systematic investments, and avoiding panic-driven decisions during such crises.
Centre plans speeding up MMDR amendments to boost critical mineral availability
India is accelerating efforts to enhance the domestic availability of critical minerals, prompted by concerns over concentrated global supply chains and geopolitical tensions. Amendments to the Mines and Minerals (Development and Regulation) Act are being expedited.
Indian EV Industry being hurt by additional restrictions on rare earth minerals by China: Jefferies
Indian EV companies are facing challenges due to China's restrictions on rare earth metal exports. Importing magnets, crucial for EV motors, has become difficult. Companies might consider importing fully assembled motors, but this poses new challenges. The Indian government is exploring options like building stockpiles and offering incentives for domestic production.
Passenger vehicle retail sales dip 3% in May as demand softens
Passenger vehicle retail sales in India experienced a 3% decline in May due to customer purchase delays amid geopolitical tensions and softening demand for entry-level models. Two-wheeler sales rose by 7%, driven by auspicious events and pre-monsoon demand, while commercial vehicle sales fell by 4% due to muted freight and tight liquidity.
Why RBI will hit a hattrick of 25 bps rate cut tomorrow
Despite global economic uncertainties, India's economy shows resilience with a 7.4% growth in Q4 FY25. The RBI, supported by benign inflation and moderate growth, is expected to cut the repo rate by 25 bps to 5.75% in June. This move aims to boost economic activity, encourage borrowing and investment, and foster job creation, marking the third consecutive rate cut.
Counterpoint Research cuts 2025 global smartphone shipment growth amid tariff uncertainty
The downgrade signals challenges for manufacturers that already face weakening sales amid heightened geopolitical tensions and escalating tariff disputes. The research firm also revised year-on-year shipment growth from China down to near-flat, while Apple and Samsung's shipments are expected to slow as cost increases are passed on to consumers.
Trump tariffs stoke supply chain worries for US businesses, survey shows
A recent Gallagher survey reveals that a significant majority of U.S. business owners are worried about supply chain disruptions, largely due to President Trump's tariffs.
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