‘Can China stop the flow of Brahmaputra river to India?’: Assam CM hits back at Pakistan over Beijing’s veiled threat

In a fiery and fact-loaded rebuttal posted on X on Monday, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma dismantled what he called Pakistan’s “new scare narrative” over China’s control of the Brahmaputra river.

Reacting to recent statements from a senior Pakistani aide invoking Chinese leverage over India’s water, Sarma declared with conviction: “Brahmaputra is a river that grows in India — not shrinks.”

Sarma’s statement came in response to remarks made by Rana Ihsaan Afzal, a special assistant to Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who claimed that “China can stop Brahmaputra’s flow to India” just as India recently halted parts of the Indus waters to Pakistan.

The Chief Minister, who governs one of the most flood-prone states in the country, didn’t just counter the claim — he deconstructed it with hydrological detail.

“China contributes only ~30-35% of the Brahmaputra's total flow,” Sarma wrote, citing glacial melt and limited rainfall in Tibet. The rest — a commanding 65-70% — comes from torrential monsoons and major tributaries within India’s own territory.

“The Brahmaputra is not a river India depends on upstream — it is a rain-fed Indian river system, strengthened after entering Indian territory,” he said. To drive the point home, Sarma contrasted the river’s flow at the India-China border — around 2,000 to 3,000 cubic metres per second — with its mighty surge in the Assam plains, where it swells to between 15,000 and 20,000 m³/s during monsoons.

Sarma also pointed out that any reduction in water flow from China “may help India mitigate the annual floods in Assam,” a recurring crisis that uproots lakhs and destroys livelihoods.

Turning the tables on Pakistan, he added, “Pakistan, which has exploited 74 years of preferential water access under the Indus Waters Treaty, now panics as India rightfully reclaims its sovereign rights.”

He ended his post with a resolute reminder: “Brahmaputra is not controlled by a single source — it is powered by our geography, our monsoon, and our civilizational resilience.”

Chinese advisor issues veiled warning

The controversy was triggered by a cryptic but pointed remark from Victor Zhikai Gao, a senior Chinese policy advisor, who said: “Don’t do onto others what you don’t want done to you.”

Though not naming India directly, his statement was widely seen as a veiled threat in response to India’s recent move to suspend parts of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan following the Pahalgam terror attack that killed several Indian civilians.

The message from Beijing coincides with heightened concerns about China’s ambitious “Great Bend Dam” project on the Yarlung Tsangpo — the upper stream of the Brahmaputra in Tibet.

This proposed mega-dam, reportedly set to generate 60 gigawatts of power (three times the capacity of the Three Gorges Dam), would be the world’s most powerful hydroelectric project. But its location — just 30 km from India’s border — makes it a geopolitical flashpoint.

Experts in India have called it a “water bomb.” BJP MP from Arunachal Pradesh Tapir Gao warned that the dam is not just an infrastructure project, but a strategic weapon. “It is not going to be a dam, but a 'water bomb' to be used against India and other lower riparian countries,” Gao said.

Dr Ranbir Singh, Chairman of the Brahmaputra Board, questioned the long-term consequences: “The Brahmaputra Basin is the only water-surplus river basin in India. With this dam in China, are we looking at a water-deficient Brahmaputra river basin?” He emphasized the need for India to adopt a multi-pronged strategy — combining diplomatic outreach, global pressure, and regional collaboration — to counter Beijing’s water manoeuvres.

India’s water diplomacy evolves

This episode comes at a pivotal moment in India’s water diplomacy. After decades of abiding by the Indus Waters Treaty despite repeated cross-border attacks, New Delhi has begun to reassess its options.

Following the April 22 massacre in Pahalgam, India decided to suspend flow data sharing and restrict some water access to Pakistan — marking a significant strategic shift.

China’s response, even if indirect, is a signal that water is now firmly part of the larger strategic chessboard in Asia. But the China-India equation remains complex. Despite border skirmishes and deep mistrust, the two nuclear-armed powers have continued high-level dialogue.

Sarma warns Bangladesh: “You have two chicken necks, both vulnerable"

In a stern message to Dhaka, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma on Sunday cautioned Bangladesh against provocative rhetoric over India’s Siliguri Corridor — the narrow stretch linking the Northeast to the rest of the country.

Taking to X, Sarma said, “Bangladesh has two of its own 'chicken necks'. Both are far more vulnerable,” referring to the 80-km corridor from Dakshin Dinajpur to South West Garo Hills that could isolate Rangpur, and the 28-km stretch connecting Chittagong port to Dhaka.

Sarma’s remarks came days after Bangladeshi Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, during a visit to China, called India’s Northeast “landlocked” and pitched Bangladesh as its “only guardian of the ocean.”

Responding sharply, Sarma said, “If Bangladesh attacks our Chicken's Neck, we will attack both the Chicken Necks of Bangladesh,” noting that one of them lies just a stone’s throw from India’s Meghalaya border.

He also referenced India’s recent Operation Sindoor, which decimated terror infrastructure inside Pakistan, to underscore India’s military readiness.

“Bangladesh has to be reborn 14 times before attacking India,” Sarma said, as reports surfaced of Chinese support to revive a World War II-era airbase in Lalmonirhat, just 100 km from the Siliguri Corridor.

(With inputs from agencies)