Trump’s Golden Dome, the future of defence or a Star Wars fantasy in space?

When President Donald Trump stepped into the Oval Office after his inauguration and signed the executive order titled “Iron Dome for America” after seven days, he made a sweeping promise of building the “best system ever built” to shield the US from missile attacks, even those launched from space.

Named the Golden Dome, the project marks one of the most ambitious missile defense efforts in American history. “Once fully constructed, the Golden Dome will be capable of intercepting missiles even if they are launched from other sides of the world and even if they are launched from space,” Trump declared.

A US missile shield to shoot down every threat from all possible spheres and adversaries seems like a throwback to former US president Ronald Reagan’s attempt in the early 1980s. Regan in 1983 had proposed the Strategic Defense Initiative, which was nicknamed "Star Wars", to counter the threat of nuclear missiles fired by the then-USSR.

Regan’s bold plan remained just that - a plan and never fructified. But now President Trump has taken several leaps forward with his super ambitious Golden Dome which he estimates will cost $175 billion at the very least. The cost is only related to building the system with the operation of the Golden Dome also running into several billion dollars per year.

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General Michael Guetlein, the current vice chief of space operations, was tapped by Trump to lead the effort.

Unlike Israel’s Iron Dome, which is localized and designed to counter short-range threats, the Golden Dome would need to shield the entire US.

The Golden Dome must integrate multiple systems capable of tracking and destroying various types of aerial threats, including intercontinental ballistic missiles and space-launched warheads, according to Wes Rumbaugh, a fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Big vision, bigger challenges

Trump claims the system will be operational within three years. Experts, however, call this timeline wildly optimistic. “Even if you just sized the system to today's Russian nuclear arsenal, and you wanted to build a multi-layer capability that Trump has talked about, that is already enormously expensive,” said Michael O’Hanlon, director of research at the Brookings Institution.

He estimates the cost could soar to $500 billion, which is almost three times the budget that Trump has proposed.

The most technically daunting component will be space-based interceptors, potentially lasers equipped with large fuel reserves and giant mirrors, similar in scale to the Hubble Space Telescope.

But as O’Hanlon warns, “You’ve got to be pretty confident you're going to get everything, or at least knock everything off course.”

A race in the making?

“You’re reigniting all the age-old debates,” O’Hanlon added, warning of a new arms race where adversaries like China and Russia accelerate their offensive capabilities to counteract US defenses.

While some nations, including Canada, have expressed interest in collaborating, questions remain over how US defense agencies will cooperate.

The Missile Defense Agency, Space Force, Army, Navy, and Air Force will all need to work in sync, something Rumbaugh calls “unclear” at this stage.

Still, O’Hanlon concedes a partial system could be worthwhile. “I think that there could be some benefits to even a limited, partially effective missile defense system... whether it's defending against the North Korean threat, or a limited strike by Russia or China.”

As Congress debates an initial $25 billion allocation and the Defense Department prepares next steps, the Golden Dome is shaping into not just a technological challenge, but a geopolitical and moral test of America’s future defense strategy.