Where is the monsoon? IMD gives an update as heatwave worsens, rain stalled since May 29

The southwest monsoon, which has remained stalled since May 29, is likely to resume its northward progress by June 14, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and private weather agency Skymet Weather Services. The rain-bearing system is currently active over Mumbai in the west and Sikkim-Sub Himalayan West Bengal in the east.

Bay of Bengal systems to strengthen rainfall

Meteorologists attribute the expected revival of the monsoon to multiple weather systems forming over the Bay of Bengal. GP Sharma, president of Skymet Weather Services, said two monsoon systems, including one that is still developing, will likely reinvigorate rainfall where the monsoon has already arrived and help push it further north and west.

“A cyclonic circulation has formed over west-central Bay of Bengal, and may bring rain to coastal Andhra Pradesh, Rayalaseema and Karnataka. By the weekend, heavy showers are likely to reach Konkan and Goa,” Sharma said.

Cyclonic circulations to drive monsoon into new areas

Sharma added that another cyclonic circulation is expected to form over the north Bay of Bengal on June 14. This system is projected to travel through Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharashtra, aiding the forward movement of the monsoon.

“The combined impact of these systems is expected to reinvigorate the monsoon in areas where it has weakened post-onset and extend its reach to cover the remaining parts of West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and East Madhya Pradesh,” Sharma said.
“Additionally, the northern limit of the monsoon is expected to expand in the coming days, alleviating the ongoing heatwave in northern India,” he added.

IMD confirms favourable conditions

An IMD official confirmed that conditions are turning favourable for the monsoon to advance into central and east India by June 14. However, the official noted that the confirmation of the second Bay of Bengal system is still awaited.

The official also mentioned a cyclonic circulation positioned over north Odisha and nearby areas, which is strengthening monsoon winds. “From June 12, we expect decent rainfall activity in South Maharashtra and later in other areas in the state. Kerala and Karnataka are already experiencing a strengthening monsoon with a forecast of light to moderate rainfall at most or many places in the next few days,” the official said.

Heatwave continues across northern India

The IMD bulletin on Tuesday reported ongoing heatwave conditions in many parts of northern and northwestern India. These include most places in northern Madhya Pradesh, as well as several locations in west Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and southwest Uttar Pradesh. Severe heatwave conditions were also reported in parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, and Jammu & Kashmir.

However, IMD forecasts gradual relief from the heat starting June 13, as monsoon systems begin to move westward.

Monsoon likely to pick up from June 14

The IMD confirmed that the monsoon had not advanced on June 10 and that the movement is expected to resume by June 14. “Further progression of the monsoon will result from the westward movement of the existing weather system along the Odisha coast,” an IMD official said.

Another official highlighted the presence of an east-west trough from north Tamil Nadu to the south Maharashtra coast. “This shear zone roughly along latitude 15°N is also an indicator of monsoon revival. This will strengthen monsoon winds and facilitate the northward progress of rainfall in the coming days,” the official said.

(Inputs from TOI)