Russian missiles, Western worries: India’s arms map is changing

India is strategically and sharply reducing its reliance on Russian defence equipment, marking a significant break from decades of dependence on Moscow’s arms. Officials familiar with the matter has earlier told Bloomberg that New Delhi has slashed orders from Russia and turned to Western suppliers, especially the US and France. This shift is a big deal for American defence companies, who are now landing contracts worth billions, and for India, which is diversifying its sources to secure more advanced, reliable technology.

Speaking at the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said, "You should expect a (trade) deal between the United States and India in the not too distant future." He also noted progress in having the right people involved in the negotiations.

However, one factor that previously strained relations was India's preference for buying military equipment from Russia. Lutnick pointed out that India is now starting to purchase military equipment from the United States, which is a positive step.

Lutnick stated, "I think India [is] starting to move towards buying military equipment from the United States, which then goes a long way."

But the question remains, what is prompting India's shift away from Russian arms and defence technology.

Also Read: India’s Russian arms deals ‘rubbed US the wrong way’, but trends changing now: US Commerce Secretary Lutnick

Why India is moving away from Russian arms

India’s defence imports from Russia have plummeted from 76% in 2009 to just 36% last year, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). This is the first time since the 1960s that Russia’s share fell below half. The change reflects Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strategy to reduce dependency on Russia, despite India continuing to buy Russian oil and maintain diplomatic ties.

Bloomberg had cited senior Indian officials saying that joint projects with Russia, such as manufacturing helicopters and advanced fighter jets, have been shelved. A proposal to lease a Russian nuclear-powered submarine to train Indian crews is also unlikely to proceed. The only pending Russian deliveries are two warships and anti-missile shield batteries ordered before the Ukraine conflict began.

On the other hand, Russia is all set to deliver the remaining S-400 air defense units to India by 2025-2026, with Roman Babushkin, deputy chief of mission, confirming that the contract is on track with no delays. This is significant especially considering its overwhelming success during the recent conflict between India and Pakistan following the Pahalgam terror attack. This follows India’s $5.43 billion deal signed in 2018 for five squadrons. Three of the five planned squadrons have already been delivered.

Also Read: India to get remaining S-400 missile systems by 2026, says Russia

The Ukraine war accelerates the shift

The war in Ukraine has exposed cracks in Russia’s defence manufacturing and delivery capacity. According to Sushant Singh, a lecturer at Yale University, the delay in supplying anti-missile shields "is proof of Russia’s strained capacity." Russia’s close ties with China, whose electronics it heavily relies on, raise concerns for India’s military planners. As told to Bloomberg, Anit Mukherjee, a King’s College London expert on Indian military policy, warned, “Russian defense industries’ reliance on Chinese electronics is problematic and a red flag for India.”

Even so, India still depends on Russia for spare parts to maintain its existing weapons, including rifles, tanks, and fighter jets. Singh explains, “These will remain in service for decades and India will need spare parts and ammunition from Russia for a long time.” But the future lies elsewhere.

Also Read: Target locked: India’s homebuilt weapons outclass Chinese imports

The growing role of US and Western suppliers

Since 2018, India has signed contracts worth nearly $20 billion for US-made defence equipment, signalling a clear tilt toward Washington. The country recently approved a $3 billion deal for 31 long-range drones from General Atomics. India’s state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL) and General Electric are close to finalising a deal to jointly produce advanced jet engines for India’s next generation of fighter aircraft. These agreements began taking shape during Modi’s 2023 visit to the US.

A senior Indian official pointed out that while Russian arms are cheaper upfront, their frequent need for repairs makes them more expensive long-term. “India has slowly shifted to Western-origin platforms because the military is increasingly comfortable with such technology,” Mukherjee said.

Balancing Act: Russia for oil, US for defence

Modi’s foreign policy aims to balance relations carefully. While reducing military dependence on Moscow, India continues to buy discounted Russian oil and offers diplomatic backing. Meanwhile, the US provides advanced technology and jobs through defence partnerships. This shift strengthens the US-India defence relationship just as Washington faces tariff challenges and geopolitical tensions.

Nandan Unnikrishnan from the Observer Research Foundation noted, “India doesn’t wish to cross any redlines the West may have — particularly the U.S.” This cautious approach aims to keep India aligned with Western defence standards without alienating Russia entirely.

Quality concerns and manufacturing challenges

India’s doubts about Russian equipment quality predate the Ukraine war. Some Russian gear, like the MiG-29K fighter jets, failed to meet expectations. Swasti Rao, of the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies, remarked on India’s surprise at Russia’s poor performance on the battlefield: “How come the Patriots took down the Kinzhal missiles that were touted as invincible? How come Russian ships are becoming such easy targets...?”

Moreover, India's indigenous fighter jet programme has stalled partly because the US-based General Electric struggled to supply jet engines. This highlights challenges in scaling domestic manufacturing and the importance of Western tech transfers.

Also Read: Operation Spiderweb shows how small $400 drones deliver big blows to Russia's $7 billion fighter jets

Nuclear capabilities

India’s reliance on Russia for nuclear-powered submarines remains, as Mukherjee pointed out, “Russia remains the only country which offers its nuclear submarines to India.” However, India’s broader partnership with Western countries is incomplete until nuclear technology issues are addressed.

India has earmarked $100 billion for future arms procurement, creating a vast opportunity for Western suppliers willing to co-produce and transfer technology. This opening benefits firms eager to deepen defence ties and help India build a modern, self-reliant military industry.

India–US defence ties deepen under 10-year strategic framework

Meanwhile, India and the United States have entered a new phase in their defence relationship under a 10-year framework signed during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington. The agreement, jointly announced with President Donald Trump, positions India as a key defence partner in the 21st century and formalises deeper cooperation in arms procurement, co-development, and regional security.

India has retained its Strategic Trade Authorisation-1 (STA-1) status, reaffirming its position as a trusted partner in sensitive technology transfers. As both countries negotiate a bilateral trade agreement, a key component of the defence partnership will involve reviewing arms transfer regulations to streamline procurement and technology exchange.

Following Trump’s re-election in early 2025, Washington is accelerating defence sales to New Delhi. Talks are set to begin this year on a Reciprocal Defence Procurement (RDP) agreement to align procurement systems and ensure mutual supply of defence goods and services. This will mark a step forward in industrial integration.

Over the last decade, India has significantly expanded its inventory of US-origin platforms. These include strategic airlift and surveillance assets such as the C-130J Super Hercules, C-17 Globemaster III, and P-8I Poseidon, as well as helicopters like the CH-47F Chinook and MH-60R Seahawk. Attack platforms include the AH-64E Apache and Harpoon anti-ship missiles. Artillery systems like the M777 howitzer and the long-endurance MQ-9B drones also feature prominently.

New co-production proposals for the Javelin anti-tank guided missiles and Stryker infantry combat vehicles are under discussion. In addition, the procurement of six more P-8I aircraft is expected to conclude this year, strengthening India’s maritime surveillance in the Indian Ocean.

Building deterrence in the Indo-Pacific

India and the US are jointly working to counter Chinese assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific. Partnerships between US defence companies and Indian firms are being used to boost local capacity. One such effort is the collaboration between Anduril Industries and Mahindra Group to co-develop autonomous maritime systems and an AI-enabled counter-UAS platform. L3 Harris is also working with Bharat Electronics to develop active towed array sonar systems for anti-submarine warfare.

Earlier this month, the two nations conducted another edition of the "Tiger Triumph" tri-service exercise, highlighting growing interoperability across air, land and sea domains.

Roadmap for industrial cooperation and technology

A major highlight of PM Modi’s visit was the launch of the Autonomous Systems Industry Alliance (ASIA), which will focus on scaling defence production and industrial partnerships in the Indo-Pacific. This comes in addition to ongoing reviews of the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), which aim to simplify maintenance, spares, and repair for US-origin platforms operated by Indian forces.

The US is also reviewing its policies on the transfer of fifth-generation fighter jets and undersea technologies to India. This signals a possible shift in export control norms that have long limited high-end technology transfer.

During the recent bilateral meeting in New Delhi, PM Modi and US Vice President JD Vance discussed regional security, military deployments, and intelligence sharing in the Indo-Pacific. Officials described the visit as a key step in elevating defence ties beyond procurement into areas of logistics and emerging threats.

Defence Technology and Trade Initiative: Challenges and the road ahead

While the bilateral framework has evolved significantly since 2015, especially with the signing of foundational agreements like LEMOA, COMCASA, and BECA, cooperation in defence technology has been slow to mature. Earlier attempts under the Defence Technology and Trade Initiative (DTTI) suffered from delays in concluding frameworks and limited progress in co-development.

To provide renewed momentum, both sides have been working under the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET), launched in January 2023. It serves as an umbrella for civil and defence technology cooperation and is linked to the broader strategic trade dialogue.

Despite progress, hurdles remain. Differences in intellectual property rights, commercial terms, and security safeguards continue to limit deeper technological integration. There is also concern over stringent controls placed on black-box components and software by US firms. Even traditional allies have faced constraints in modifying co-developed systems.

INDUS-X: accelerating defence innovation

The India-US Defence Acceleration Ecosystem (INDUS-X), launched in 2023, is another important pillar of the defence relationship. It connects India’s iDEX and the US Defence Innovation Unit (DIU) to drive joint innovation. The initial rounds under the INDUS-X Mutual Promotion of Advanced Collaborative Technologies (IMPACT) have already targeted areas like undersea communications and oil spill detection.

Meetings between defence investors and start-ups, as well as academic workshops, have laid the groundwork. However, implementation challenges—such as funding and integration of innovations into operational platforms—remain critical.

A protégé-mentor model is also being explored, where US and Indian companies will collaborate on nurturing start-ups. Facilitating this connection with larger manufacturers will be essential to move promising technologies beyond prototypes.

Two flagship programmes lead the way

Two projects are set to define this phase of cooperation. The first is the GE–HAL agreement to co-produce the GE-F414 jet engine, with the final contract expected soon. The second is India’s acquisition of 31 MQ-9B drones, including plans for local assembly and global maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) services in India.

These deals, though not born directly from the roadmap for industrial cooperation signed in June 2023, align closely with its goals of boosting local manufacturing, increasing technology absorption, and diversifying India’s defence supply chains.

Several Indian companies are now actively supplying components to US defence manufacturers. This integration has advanced significantly over the past decade, setting the stage for more ambitious industrial cooperation in the years ahead.

Officials on both sides agree: the frameworks are in place, but execution must now take precedence. There is broad consensus on the need to announce new co-development and R&D projects in 2025 and 2026, especially in strategic areas like artificial intelligence, unmanned systems, and cyber defence.

The update of the 2015 Framework for Defence Relations is also due later this year. As the two nations navigate challenges of regulatory compliance, commercial risk, and industrial coordination, India–US defence cooperation in 2025 has reached a pivotal moment—no longer limited to declarations, but geared towards delivery.

Despite the shift, as of 2025, Russia remains India’s largest supplier of military hardware, mostly in spare parts and ammunition. But former Indian defence adviser Amit Cowshish said, “Russia was no longer ‘in a position’ to meet India’s requirements.”

(With inputs from Bloomberg, AFP, SIPRI data)