Ukraine’s drone swarm attack was a warning for Russia and the US may be next

Ukraine’s surprise drone strike on Russian airbases has shaken US defence leaders into acknowledging a grave risk — America's own airfields could be hit just as easily.

“It’s an eyebrow-raising moment,” said Gen. David Allvin, US Air Force Chief of Staff, at a Washington defence conference this week. “Right now, I don’t think it’s where we need to be.”

Ukraine’s attack damaged or destroyed at least 12 Russian warplanes on June 1, including strategic bombers. Ukrainian officials claimed 41 aircraft were targeted in total. Their method was both simple and alarming: commercial-style drones were hidden inside wooden mobile houses mounted on trucks. These were driven near four Russian bases, and the drones were launched by remote once in position. The Russian bombers, unprotected on open tarmacs, never saw them coming.

And neither, experts warn, would US planes in similar conditions.

No shelter at home

Thomas Shugart of the Center for a New American Security didn’t mince words: “There is no sanctuary even in the US homeland – particularly given that our bases back home are essentially completely unhardened.”

“Hardened,” in military terms, means aircraft are parked in reinforced shelters. But at most US facilities, including key sites like Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri or Dyess Air Force Base in Texas, multibillion-dollar bombers sit in the open, not far from public highways. It’s a vulnerability mirrored in Russia — and just as easily exploitable.

“We are pretty vulnerable,” retired US Army Gen. Stanley McChrystal told CNN. “We’ve got a lot of high-value assets that are extraordinarily expensive.” The B-2 bomber, for example, costs $2 billion apiece. The US has only 20.

Ukrainian officials estimated the strike cost Russia $7 billion. And it cost Ukraine mere tens of thousands of dollars.

Drone warfare, democratized

This isn’t science fiction. A first-person view (FPV) drone, like the ones used in Ukraine’s strike, can be bought online for under $700. Controlled by a headset, the operator can steer the drone with precision. These cheap tools are now deadly weapons.

“Ukraine inflicted billions in damage,” Army Secretary Dan Driscoll told Congress this week. “The world saw in near-real time how readily available technology can disrupt established power dynamics.”

Ukraine has honed its drone tactics with urgency. Each week, engineers adapt to Russian countermeasures, staying a step ahead.

Homeland incursions and sleeper threats

Drone threats are not confined to foreign battlefields. According to US Northern Command, there were 350 drone incursions into domestic military bases last year. Some were hobbyists, but others could have been surveillance missions by foreign adversaries — or worse.

“Think of all the containers and illegal entrants inside our borders,” warned Carl Schuster, a former Pacific Command intelligence director. Every cargo truck could conceal a drone. Every base near a highway — and many are — becomes a potential target.

“It’s a logistical nightmare,” wrote David Kirichenko on the Atlantic Council’s Ukraine Watch. Russia’s vast geography, once a strength, is now a weakness. The same applies to America.

China’s fortress, America’s exposure

While the US debates budgets, China has built more than 650 hardened aircraft shelters within range of Taiwan, according to a Hudson Institute report co-authored by Shugart. The report warned that, in a US-China conflict, most American aircraft losses would occur on the ground — not in combat.

Even Guam’s Andersen Air Force Base, home to B-2 and B-52 bombers, lacks hardened shelters.

“The F-47 is an amazing aircraft, but it’s going to die on the ground if we don’t protect it,” Allvin said, referring to a proposed $300 million stealth jet touted by former President Donald Trump.

By contrast, Shugart estimates that a hardened aircraft shelter would cost about $30 million.

“We’re not even close”

The Pentagon is scrambling. After a deadly drone strike killed three US soldiers in Jordan earlier this year, efforts to counter drones intensified. Strategies include jammers to sever control signals, intercepting missiles, even nets to snare drones mid-air. Still, none are foolproof.

“There’s no simple solution,” a US defence official told reporters. “We’re not even close.”

That same official, speaking anonymously, warned that cheap drone swarms could soon trigger a “mass-casualty event.” High-profile civilian targets like sports arenas and infrastructure remain dangerously exposed.

The budget tug-of-war

The root problem is money — and priorities.

“If all we are doing is playing defence and can’t shoot back, then that’s not a good use of our money,” Allvin said. The Pentagon, with an annual budget nearing $1 trillion, must decide whether to fund new offensive systems or protect the ones it already has.

Lawmakers are listening. On Capitol Hill, Senator Roger Wicker, head of the Armed Services Committee, promised billions in funding to address the drone gap. But officials remain sceptical that the urgency will match the rhetoric.

“We are not doing enough,” Army Secretary Driscoll testified. “The current status quo is not sufficient.”

Ukraine’s innovation with FPV drones shows how war is changing. Technology has levelled the field. The next war — or attack — could arrive in the back of a truck, not a fighter jet.

For now, America’s billion-dollar bombers remain on open runways. And the clock is ticking.